IIT Guwahati and Singapore’s Duke-NUS Medical School have come up with an alternative model to predict the number of Covid-19 infected people in 30 days in the different states of India. The data-science model prepared by the researchers combines the three different models India is using now.
The three Coronavirus predictive models being used in India now are: the exponential, the logistic, and the Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS) models.
A report solely based on any one model can potentially mislead us,” Palash Ghosh, Assistant Professor, IIT Guwahati told PTI.
In an attempt to guard against this possibility, we have considered the exponential, the logistic, and the Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS) models, along with the model-free daily infection-rate (DIR) using open-source data. We have interpreted the results jointly from all models rather than individually,” the professor said.
State categorisation not based on Green, Orange, Red zone-based classification
The states are divided into three categories–moderate, severe and controlled. The model follows a different categorisation than the currently adopted Green Zone, Orange Zone and Red Zone classification.
The report is based on the growth of active cases in recent times, along with the daily infection-rate (DIR) values for each state.
We have labelled a state as ‘severe’ if a non-decreasing trend in DIR values is observed over the last two weeks along with a near exponential growth in active infected cases, as ‘moderate’ if an almost decreasing trend in DIR values is observed over the last two weeks along with neither increasing nor decreasing growth in active infected cases, and as ‘controlled’ if a decreasing trend in the last two weeks’ DIR values is observed along with a decreasing growth in active infected cases,” Ghosh said.
‘Considering our entire country to be on the same page may not reveal the right picture’
“While analyzing the novel coronavirus infection data, considering our entire country to be on the same page may not reveal the right picture. This is so because the first infection, new infection-rate, progression over time, and preventive measures taken by various state governments and the common public for each state are different,” the IIT Guwahati professor explained.
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